Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
