A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
